We will work on advising expected ocean freight values at time of shipments. Carriers have all announced an April 1st increase of $240 per 20' container, but the industry opinion is this rate increase will not hold. Here is what we see in the freight market:
1) Fuel Prices
2nd Quarter fuel prices are reduced. If base freight rates go up, we should still see fuel prices come down and offset some or all of base freight rate increase.
2) Container Situation
US is just entering spring import season and will roll into peak import season for holiday shipments. Yes, it is early, but retailers need to plan in advance for holiday sales this fall. This should generate significant box supply that has been lacking at many locations.
3) Labor Situation
The Union labor agreement has been reached. Ports are working at normal. This is going to help with box supply and get bookings more on track per original booking schedule.
4) US Dollar Strength
With the surging US dollar, I expect the imports to pick up in the US. This should allow more box supply and put pressure on summer export container rates. Strong US dollar will promote imports and add to container supply.
5) Seasonal export slowdown
With South American harvest, this is the seasonal slow down for container exports from the US. Also, with US Gulf to Japan ports in bulk vessel at $32/MT, I don't see many new container sales for bulk grain.
Carriers are still pushing for higher rates, but with all of the above negative factors, I believe it will be difficult for carriers to raise rates in the coming months. I expect April 1st - April 15th to see carriers try and hold the higher rates, but as soon as boxes start stacking up at interior origins, rates will need to come down to facilitate box movement.